🔗 Share this article An Forecasting Platform User Earned $436K from Bets Predicting the Ouster of Maduro. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A trader made nearly half a million dollars from wagers on the downfall of Nicolás Maduro just before it was officially announced, sparking debate about potential gains made from confidential information of the US operation. Sudden Shift in Predictions Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that the leader would be no longer in control by the close of the month surged in the period preceding Donald Trump declared on January 3rd that Maduro had been seized. A particular user, which joined the platform last month and took four positions, all on political events in Venezuela, made more than $436K from a modest bet of $32.5K. The identity is unknown. This unidentified trader had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Probability Spikes Before News Break Trading information shows that participants assessed the probability of the president's removal at just a low 6.5 percent in the late afternoon of the prior Friday. But the market's assessment had jumped to 11% by shortly before midnight and spiked dramatically in the first hours of the next day, pointing to a sharp shift in betting activity just before the public announcement was made. "This particular bet has all the hallmarks of a transaction based on non-public details," said a financial reform advocate. A small number of other platform users also earned large payouts from predicting the capture. Regulatory Scrutiny Intensifies Some lawmakers are starting to take note. A new rule introduced on recently aims to prohibit public officials from participating on prediction markets if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a market. Industry Context Event-driven betting sites have become increasingly popular in the United States, with traders able to predict everything from sports outcomes to politics. This sector were examined under the last presidential term. However it has experienced less resistance during the current presidency. Using confidential knowledge is a crime in the stock market, but there are less oversight in the forecasting arena. A spokesperson for Kalshi said their site "explicitly prohibits insider trading of any form."